Market forecast
High-brightness (HB) LEDs are defined, for the purposes of this article’s market forecast, as component-level bulbs—rather than chips, dies, luminaires or arrays that may include optics, a heat sink and/or a power supply—with a luminous efficacy rating of at least 30 lumens per watt. The lumen unit is equivalent to the amount of light produced through a solid angle by a source of 1-candela luminous intensity radiating equally in all directions.

(Luminous flux essentially measures the power of light perceived by the human eye. A lumen refers to physiological size, whereas a watt is a physical unit of power, measuring the rate of energy conversion.)

In 2011, the worldwide market for LEDs used in signage and professional displays was expected to reach $1.6 billion. By 2015, this measure of annual consumption is forecast to reach nearly $2.3 billion.

The Americas region—including North, Central and South America—led consumption in 2010 and is predicted to expand in value to nearly $757 million in 2015. The Asia Pacific (Apac) region is expanding at a faster pace, however, such that midway through the forecast period of 2011 to 2015, it is expected to take the lead in relative market share. The Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region held a 23 per cent share of global consumption value in 2011 and is also forecast to experience faster growth than the Americas region (see Figure 2), though not to top it.

Compared to ‘standard’ LEDs, HB-LEDs held a relative market share, in terms of consumption value, of nearly 65 per cent in 2011. They are forecast to maintain this lead and reach 72 per cent in 2015, with the value of their use increasing from just over $1 billion in 2011 to more than $1.6 billion (see Figure 3).

Standard LEDs are the market share leader by far in terms of volume, having comprised 97.2 per cent of the market in 2011. It is simply because there is an enormous difference in the average selling prices of standard LEDs and their HB counterparts that the latter hold the consumption value leadership position.

Stephen Montgomery is ElectroniCast Consultants’ president of international business expansion and produces articles and presentations about light-emitting diode (LED) illumination technology, applications, installations and markets. For more information, visit www.electronicast.com.